| Journal: | Salud pública de México |
| Database: | PERIÓDICA |
| System number: | 000274083 |
| ISSN: | 0036-3634 |
| Authors: | Brunkard, Joan M1 Cifuentes, Enrique2 Rothenberg, Stephen J |
| Institutions: | 1University of California, Department of Environmental Studies, Santa Cruz, California. Estados Unidos de América 2Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos. México |
| Year: | 2008 |
| Season: | May-Jun |
| Volumen: | 50 |
| Number: | 3 |
| Pages: | 227-234 |
| Country: | México |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Document type: | Artículo |
| Approach: | Aplicado, analítico |
| Spanish abstract | el cambio climático global sobre los casos esperados de dengue en las próximas décadas. Hasta donde sabemos, este es el primer estudio que evalúa las posibles asociaciones entre los eventos climáticos y tiempos y la incidencia de casos de dengue en la frontera de México con Texas |
| English abstract | Objective. The goal of this study was to assess linkages between microclimate and longer-term ENSO-related weather forcing on the week-to-week changes in dengue prevalence in Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, over a recent decade of dengue observations. Material and Methods. An auto-regressive model to evaluate the role of climatic factors (seasurface temperature) and weather (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation) on dengue incidence over the period 1995-2005, was developed by conducting time-series analysis. Results. Dengue incidence increased by 2.6% (95% CI: 0.2-5.1) one week after every 1ºC increase in weekly maximum temperature and increased 1.9% (95% CI: -0.1-3.9) two weeks after every 1 cm increase in weekly precipitation. Every 1ºC increase in sea surface temperatures (El Niño region 3.4 ) was followed by a 19.4% (95% CI: -4.7-43.5) increase in dengue incidence (18 weeks later). Conclusions. Climate and weather factors play a small but significant role in dengue transmission in Matamoros, Mexico. This study may provide baseline information for identifying potential longer-term effects of global climate change on dengue expected in the coming decades. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the potential associations between climate and weather events and dengue incidence in this geographical area |
| Disciplines: | Medicina, Geociencias |
| Keyword: | Salud pública, Ciencias de la atmósfera, El Niño, Clima, Dengue, Frontera norte, México, Estados Unidos de América |
| Keyword: | Medicine, Earth sciences, Public health, Atmospheric sciences, El Niño, Climate, Dengue, North frontier, ENSO, Mexico, United States of America |
| Full text: | Texto completo (Ver HTML) |
