| Journal: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias |
| Database: | PERIÓDICA |
| System number: | 000435846 |
| ISSN: | 0001-3765 |
| Authors: | Ribeiro, Sérvio P1 Dáttilo, Wesley2 Barbosa, David S3 Coura Vital, Wendel1 Chagas, Igor A.S. das1 Dias, Camila P1 Silva, Alcides V.C. de Castro E4 Morais, Maria Helena F5 Góes-Neto, Aristóteles6 Azevedo, Vasco A.C7 Fernandes, Geraldo Wilson7 Reis, Alexandre B1 |
| Institutions: | 1Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Nucleo de Pesquisas em Ciencias Biologicas, Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais. Brasil 2Instituto de Ecología, A.C., Red de Ecoetología, Jalapa, Veracruz. México 3Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Departamento de Parasitologia, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. Brasil 4Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Departamento de Fisica, Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais. Brasil 5Secretaria de Saude Publica do Estado do Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. Brasil 6Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Departamento de Microbiología, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. Brasil 7Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Departamento de Genetica, Ecologia e Evolucao, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. Brasil |
| Year: | 2020 |
| Volumen: | 92 |
| Number: | 4 |
| Country: | Brasil |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Document type: | Artículo |
| Approach: | Analítico, descriptivo |
| English abstract | The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the distribution of cases worldwide followed no clear biogeographic, climatic, or cultural trend. Conversely, the internationally busiest cities in all countries tended to be the hardest hit, suggesting a basic, mathematically neutral pattern of the new coronavirus early dissemination. We tested whether the number of flight passengers per time and the number of international frontiers could explain the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide by a stepwise regression. Analysis were taken by 22 May 2020, a period when one would claim that early patterns of the pandemic establishment were still detectable, despite of community transmission in various places. The number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders explained significantly 49% of the variance in the distribution of the number of cases of COVID-19, and number of passengers explained significantly 14.2% of data variance for cases per million inhabitants. Ecological neutral theory may explain a considerable part of the early distribution of SARS-CoV-2 and should be taken into consideration to define preventive international actions before a next pandemic |
| Disciplines: | Medicina |
| Keyword: | Salud pública, Virus, SARS-CoV-2, Diseminación viral, Enfermedades emergentes, Pandemia, Transporte aéreo |
| Keyword: | Public health, Virus, SARS-CoV-2, Virus dissemination, Pandemia, Emergent diseases, Air transportation |
| Full text: | Texto completo (Ver HTML) Texto completo (Ver PDF) |
