External validation and comparison of six prognostic models in a prospective cohort of HBV-ACLF in China
Título del documento: External validation and comparison of six prognostic models in a prospective cohort of HBV-ACLF in China
Revue: Annals of hepatology
Base de datos: PERIÓDICA
Número de sistema: 000409085
ISSN: 1665-2681
Autores: 1
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2
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Instituciones: 1Nantong University, School of Public Health, Nantong. China
2Nantong University, Nantong Third People’s Hospital, Nantong. China
3Nantong University, Medical School, Nantong. China
4Singapore General Hospital, Department of Internal Medicne, Singapur. Singapur
Año:
Volumen: 15
Número: 2
Paginación: 236-245
País: México
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de documento: Artículo
Enfoque: Aplicado, descriptivo
Resumen en inglés Acute-on-chronic liver failure has high mortality. Currently, robust models for predicting the outcome of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated ACLF are lacking. To assess and compare the performance of six prevalent models for short- and longterm prognosis in patients with HBV-ACLF. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD sodium (MELD-Na), MELD to sodium ratio (MESO), integrated MELD, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and modified CTP (mCTP) were validated in a prospective cohort of 232 HBV-ACLF patients. The six models were evaluated by determining discrimination, calibration and overall performance at 3 months and 5 years. Results. Results. According to the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests and calibration plots, all models could adequately describe the data except CTP at 3 months. Discrimination analysis showed that the iMELD score had the highest AUC of 0.76 with sensitivity of 62.6% and specificity of 80.2% for an optimal cut-off value of 52 at 3 months. It also had the highest AUC of 0.80 with sensitivity of 89.9% and specificity of 48.2% for an optimal cut-off value of 43 at 5 years. The overall performance of iMELD, assessed with Nagelkerke’s R2 and the Brier score, was also the best among the six models. Integrated MELD may be the best model to predict short- and long-term prognosis in patients with HBV-ACLF
Disciplinas: Medicina
Palabras clave: Gastroenterología,
Virus de la hepatitis B,
Falla hepática,
Falla hepática aguda,
Prognosis
Keyword: Medicine,
Gastroenterology,
Hepatitis B virus,
Liver failure,
Acute liver failure,
Prognosis
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