Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process
Document title: Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process
Journal: Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de Sao Paulo
Database:
System number: 000537095
ISSN: 0036-4665
Authors: 1
2
2
2
3
4
4
6
7
2
2
Institutions: 1Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Escola de Farmácia, Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais. Brasil
2Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. Brasil
3Universidade Estadual do Maranhão, Campus de Lago da Pedra, Lago da Pedra, Maranhão. Brasil
4Prefeitura Municipal de Belo Horizonte, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. Brasil
5Prefeitura Municipal de Contagem, Contagem, Minas Gerais. Brasil
6Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro. Brasil
7Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Instituto de Ciências Exatas, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. Brasil
Year:
Volumen: 63
Country: Brasil
Language: Inglés
English abstract COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority risk areas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performed considering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from the epidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of disease patterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of the State capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as major epidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had important influence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. Triangulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. In addition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contribute to a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discuss strategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance and control.
Keyword: COVID-19,
Spatial analysis,
Epidemiology,
Minas Gerais
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