| Journal: | Ludus vitalis |
| Database: | CLASE |
| System number: | 000451283 |
| ISSN: | 1133-5165 |
| Authors: | Bedolla, Miguel1 |
| Institutions: | 1University of Texas, College of Public Policy, San Antonio, Texas. Estados Unidos de América |
| Year: | 2015 |
| Volumen: | 23 |
| Number: | 43 |
| Pages: | 267-276 |
| Country: | México |
| Language: | Español |
| Document type: | Artículo |
| Approach: | Analítico |
| English abstract | This article explores in which sense it can be assigned some probability to the occurrence of an epidemic. It is based on what B. Lonergan explains in chapters 2, 3 and 4 of his book Insight: A Study of Human Understanding, as well as on what Philip McShane, his pupil, posits in Randomness, Statistics and Emergence. First, there’s a report on the epidemics of an infectious disease, its stages, and the relationship with the infectious agent. The text highlights the difference between systematic and non-systematic processes, and concludes that an epidemic is one of the latter, where chance and emergent probability play a fundamental role. Some methods are mentioned that can be used to estimate and verify the occurrence of a non-systematic event, an epidemic in this case. To do so, a distinction should be made between the probability of the event (p-f) and that such probability is true (p-v). It is concluded that the probability cannot be verified, therefore any probabilistic assignation falls under what Lonergan calls “generalized uncertainty principle.” |
| Disciplines: | Medicina |
| Keyword: | Salud pública, Epidemiología, Predicción, Lonergan, Bernard, Probabilidad, Epistemología |
| Full text: | Texto completo (Ver HTML) |
