Revista: | Revista mexicana de física |
Base de datos: | PERIÓDICA |
Número de sistema: | 000447022 |
ISSN: | 0035-001X |
Autores: | Ramírez Torres, E.E1 Selva Castañeda, A.R1 Rodríguez Aldana, Y1 Sánchez Domínguez, S2 Valdés García, L.E3 Palú Orozco, A1 Oliveros Domínguez, E.R1 Zamora Matamoros, L1 Labrada Claro, R1 Cobas Batista, M1 Sedal Yanes, D1 Soler Nariño, O1 Valdés Sosa, P.A2 Montijano, J.I3 Bergues Cabrales, L.E1 |
Instituciones: | 1Universidad de Oriente, Santiago de Cuba. Cuba 2Join China, Sichuan. China 3Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza. España |
Año: | 2021 |
Periodo: | Ene-Feb |
Volumen: | 67 |
Número: | 1 |
Paginación: | 123-136 |
País: | México |
Idioma: | Inglés |
Tipo de documento: | Artículo |
Enfoque: | Analítico, descriptivo |
Resumen en inglés | In the province of Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, the COVID-19 epidemic has a limited progression that shows an early small-number peak of infections. Most published mathematical models fit data with high numbers of confirmed cases. In contrast, small numbers of cases make it difficult to predict the course of the epidemic. We present two known models adapted to capture the noisy dynamics of COVID-19 in the Santiago de Cuba province. Parameters of both models were estimated using the approximate-Bayesian-computation framework with dedicated error laws. One parameter of each model was updated on key dates of travel restrictions. Both models approximately predicted the infection peak and the end of the COVID-19 epidemic in Santiago de Cuba. The first model predicted 57 reported cases and 16 unreported cases. Additionally, it estimated six initially exposed persons. The second model forecasted 51 confirmed cases at the end of the epidemic. In conclusion, an opportune epidemiological investigation, along with the low number of initially exposed individuals, might partly explain the favorable evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Santiago de Cuba. With the available data, the simplest model predicted the epidemic evolution with greater precision, and the more complex model helped to explain the epidemic phenomenology |
Disciplinas: | Matemáticas |
Palabras clave: | Matemáticas aplicadas, COVID-19, Modelos matemáticos, Cálculo bayesiano aproximado, Ruido de Possion |
Keyword: | Applied mathematics, COVID-19, Mathematical modelling, Approximate Bayesian computation, Poisson noise |
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