The new Keynesian Phillips curve of rational expectations: A serial correlation extension



Título del documento: The new Keynesian Phillips curve of rational expectations: A serial correlation extension
Revista: Journal of applied economics
Base de datos: CLASE
Número de sistema: 000399294
ISSN: 1667-6726
Autores: 1
2
Instituciones: 1Renmin University of China, School of Finance, Beijing. China
2University of East Anglia, School of Economics, Norwich, Norfolk. Reino Unido
Año:
Periodo: May
Volumen: 13
Número: 1
Paginación: 159-179
País: Argentina
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de documento: Artículo
Enfoque: Aplicado
Resumen en inglés This paper evaluates the empirical validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of rational expectations. We employ an instrumental variable (IV) projection method to approximate inflation expectations, and show that the inference based on this approach can differ significantly from the one based on rational expectations. More importantly, using an IV test for serial correlation in the GMM context, we find that the error term in the stylized NKPC model is significantly serially correlated. To compensate for the serial correlation problem, we propose an extended framework which can be easily rationalized in terms of sticky price setting of backward-looking firms. Empirical results show that further lags of inflation are needed in the hybrid specification of the NKPC in order to rule out serial correlation in the Euler equation
Disciplinas: Economía
Palabras clave: Teorías económicas,
Econometría,
Precios,
Empresas,
Correlación,
Política monetaria,
Keynes, John Maynard,
Inflación
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