Impact of Bayesian Approach to Demand Management in Supply Chains for the Consumption of Dynamic Products



Título del documento: Impact of Bayesian Approach to Demand Management in Supply Chains for the Consumption of Dynamic Products
Revista: Computación y sistemas
Base de datos:
Número de sistema: 000560804
ISSN: 1405-5546
Autores: 1
Instituciones: 1Universidad de Lima, Instituto de Investigación Científica, Lima, Lima. Perú
Año:
Periodo: Abr-Jun
Volumen: 27
Número: 2
Paginación: 545-552
País: México
Idioma: Inglés
Resumen en inglés Bayesian approach was applied to the management of the supply chain in a dynamic food product portfolio for a company in the retail sector. We propose a quasi-experimental method considering pre and posttest and a control group. The sample size of 93 products, out of a population of 120 products from two categories: classic sauces and gourmet sauces. R and Python programming languages were used and libraries for random sampling of the a priori distribution of the products to obtain posterior values área presented on the research. Forecast accuracy increased with the Bayesian approach by 10%. Likewise, it was possible to reduce the coverage inventory from 2 to 1.2 months and the discrepancy between the values of the Bayesian estimate with the traditional method was possible to reach a 5% error in the variation.
Keyword: Supply chain,
Bayesian approach,
Retail products,
Critical fractile,
Balanced operations
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