| Revista: | Investigaciones geográficas - Instituto de Geografía. UNAM |
| Base de datos: | PERIÓDICA |
| Número de sistema: | 000429492 |
| ISSN: | 0188-4611 |
| Autores: | Gómez Guerrero, Jenny Sofía1 Aguayo Arias, Mauricio Iván1 |
| Instituciones: | 1Universidad de Concepción, Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales, Concepción. Chile |
| Año: | 2019 |
| Periodo: | Ago |
| Número: | 99 |
| País: | México |
| Idioma: | Español |
| Tipo de documento: | Artículo |
| Enfoque: | Analítico, descriptivo |
| Resumen en español | Una de las principales preocupaciones de los científicos al trabajar con datos temporales es la calidad de la información. Los datos meteorológicos, que son entradas de modelos y predicciones hidroclimáticas, generalmente carecen de series completas. El uso de técnicas de relleno frecuentemente ignora las características orográficas del área de estudio y la precisión del método, produciendo alteraciones en los resultados con importantes consecuencias. El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar los métodos de relleno de datos pluviométricos razón normal y modelo de regresión lineal (LRM, por sus siglas en inglés), por medio de un análisis del error de estimación aplicado a un registro de 32 años de precipitaciones en dos unidades morfoestructurales distintas localizadas en la región del Biobío, Centro Sur de Chile: la planicie costera y el valle central. Los resultados evidenciaron que el método de Razón Normal presenta menor variabilidad en los errores de estimación y una mejor aproximación a los datos reales para ambas zonas |
| Resumen en inglés | The quality of the information in meteorological data time series has always been a concern for the scientific community. The scarcity of information requires the use of data fill-in techniques and methods that frequently ignore the orographic features of the study area, as well as the method accuracy, leading to inaccurate results with important consequences. In this context, this paper seeks to evaluate two methods for filling rainfall data, namely Normal Ratio and Linear Regression Model (LRM), applied to two morphostructural zones in the south central region of Chile, through an error analysis of a 32-year series of precipitation data. Both methods were compared considering 65 of 112 stations across the region, located on the coastal plain and central valley. Subsequently, two time-consistent base stations were defined, one for each area; pluviometric and proximity criteria, as well as the amount of information available, were applied to choose five neighboring stations. After calculating the correlation between stations, using a probability analysis by quartiles and the Shapiro-Wilk test the normality of the LRM models was confirmed, as well as the homogeneity of the adjusted predictions and residuals. The Normal Ratio method evaluated rainfall estimates by weighting mean annual rainfall in the neighboring stations, where each weighting factor corresponds to the ratio between the precipitation figure recorded in the auxiliary station and the mean annual rainfall of the respective station. The performance of each method was assessed using the following estimators: Mean Error, Coefficient of Determination (CoD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), RootMean-Square Error (RMSE), Sum of Squared Residuals (SSR), Mean Relative Error (MRE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The statistical analysis reveals a greater range of temporal variation in precipitation in the Central Valley relative to the Coastal Zone, except for one station, and a positive relations |
| Disciplinas: | Geografía |
| Palabras clave: | Ciencias de la atmósfera, Geografía física, Lluvia, Chile, Pluviometría, Evaluación de desempeño, Zonas morfoestructurales, Razón normal, Regresión lineal |
| Keyword: | Atmospheric sciences, Physical geography, Rainfall, Chile, Pluviometry, Performance evaluation, Morphostructural zones, Linear regression, Normal ratio |
| Texto completo: | Texto completo (Ver HTML) Texto completo (Ver PDF) |
