Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil



Título del documento: Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil
Revista: Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias
Base de datos: PERIÓDICA
Número de sistema: 000435812
ISSN: 0001-3765
Autores: 1
1
Instituciones: 1Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Departamento de Matematica, Manaus, Amazonas. Brasil
Año:
Volumen: 92
Número: 4
País: Brasil
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de documento: Artículo
Enfoque: Analítico, descriptivo
Resumen en inglés We use a compartmental model to project scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Manaus, with different degrees of social distancing and isolation of infectious individuals. In a scenario without any containment measures, our projections point to more than 50,000 (simultaneously) infectious individuals before the end of April 2020. Only in a scenario with strict and extensive social distancing (lockdown), implemented and observed as of March 23rd, 2020, would this number be less than 50,000 in the first half of June. Furthermore, an increase in the number of tests or in the collective awareness among the population regarding the importance of strict distancing measures would have only had a significant impact if implemented before the end of March
Disciplinas: Medicina
Palabras clave: Salud pública,
Virus,
Epidemiología,
Enfermedades infecciosas,
COVID-19,
Contagio,
Modelo compartimental
Keyword: Public health,
Virus,
Contagion,
Compartment model,
COVID-19,
Epidemiology,
Infectious diseases
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