| Revista: | Revista de investigación clínica |
| Base de datos: | PERIÓDICA |
| Número de sistema: | 000453226 |
| ISSN: | 0034-8376 |
| Autors: | Cruz Pacheco, Gustavo1 Bustamante Castañeda, José F2 Caputo, Jean G3 Jiménez Corona, María E4 Ponce de León Rosales, Samuel5 |
| Institucions: | 1Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas, Ciudad de México. México 2Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Programa de Graduación en Ciencias Matemáticas, Ciudad de México. México 3Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Rouen Normandie, Laboratory of Mathematics, Saint-Etienne du Rouvray. Francia 4Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Departamento de Epidemiología, Ciudad de México. México 5Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Odontología, Ciudad de México. México |
| Any: | 2020 |
| Període: | May-Jun |
| Volum: | 72 |
| Número: | 3 |
| Paginació: | 138-143 |
| País: | México |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Tipo de documento: | Nota breve o noticia |
| Enfoque: | Aplicado, descriptivo |
| Resumen en inglés | Background: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure, the new infection has spread to several countries around the world. Objective: We developed a method to study the dissemination of this infection by airline routes and provide estimations of the time of arrival of the outbreak to different cities. Methods: Using the Kermack and McKendrick model complemented with diffusion on a graph composed of nodes and edges, we made an analysis of COVID-19 dispersion to other cities by air travel. Results: The estimation was accurate in that it was possible to predict in the middle of February 2020 the arrival of the first outbreak in Mexico, which eventually occurred between March 20 and 30. This estimation was robust with respect to small changes in epidemiological parameters at the other nodes. Conclusions: The estimation of the time of arrival of the outbreak from its epicenter, allows for a time period to implement and strengthen preventive measures aimed at the general population as well as to strengthen hospital infrastructure and training of human resources. In the present study, this estimation was accurate, as observed from the real data of the beginning of the outbreak in Mexico City up to April 6, 2020 |
| Disciplines | Medicina |
| Paraules clau: | Salud pública, Brotes epidémicos, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Mecanismos de transmisión |
| Keyword: | Public health, Transmission mechanisms, Epidemic outbreaks, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 |
| Text complet: | Texto completo (Ver HTML) Texto completo (Ver PDF) |
