MELD score for prediction of survival after emergent TIPS for acute variceal hemorrhage: derivation and validation in a 101-patient cohort



Título del documento: MELD score for prediction of survival after emergent TIPS for acute variceal hemorrhage: derivation and validation in a 101-patient cohort
Revista: Annals of hepatology
Base de datos: PERIÓDICA
Número de sistema: 000411793
ISSN: 1665-2681
Autors: 1
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Institucions: 1University of Illinois, College of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois. Estados Unidos de América
2University of Illinois, Hospital and Health Sciences System, Chicago, Illinois. Estados Unidos de América
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Període: May-Jun
Volum: 14
Número: 3
Paginació: 380-388
País: México
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de documento: Artículo
Enfoque: Analítico, descriptivo
Resumen en inglés The Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has not been derived and validated for the emergent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) population. We sought to identify predictive factors for survival among emergent TIPS patients, and to substantiate MELD for outcomes prognostication in this population. Results. 101 patients with acute life threatening variceal hemorrhage underwent emergent TIPS (defined by failed endoscopic therapy for active bleeding, acute hemoglobin drop, ≥ 2-unit transfusion requirement, and/or vasopressor need) at between 1998-2013. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and procedure parameters were analyzed for correlation with mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression to derive the prognostic value of MELD constituents. Area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curves was used to assess the capability of MELD prediction of mortality. TIPS were created 119 ± 167 h after initial bleeding events. Hemodynamic success was achieved in 90%. Median final portosystemic pressure gradient was 8 mmHg. Variceal rebleeding incidence was 21%. The four original MELD components showed significant correlation with mortality on multivariate Cox regression: baseline bilirubin (regression coefficient 0.366), creatinine (0.621), international normalized ratio (1.111), and liver disease etiology (0.808), validating the MELD system for emergent cases. No other significant predictive parameters were identified. MELD was an excellent predictor of 90-day mortality in the emergent TIPS population (AUROC = 0.842, 95% CI 0.755-0.928). Conclusions. Based on independent derivation of prognostic constituents and confirmation of predictive accuracy, MELD is a valid and reliable metric for risk stratification and survival projection after emergent TIPS
Disciplines Medicina
Paraules clau: Gastroenterología,
Sistema cardiovascular,
Hemorragia varicosa,
Derivación intrahepática portosistémica transyugular
Keyword: Medicine,
Cardiovascular system,
Gastroenterology,
Variceal bleeding,
Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt
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