A note on the S-curve dynamics of commodity trade between Brazil and the United States



Document title: A note on the S-curve dynamics of commodity trade between Brazil and the United States
Journal: Latin american journal of economics
Database: CLASE
System number: 000418681
ISSN: 0719-0425
Authors: 1
2
Institutions: 1University of Wisconsin, Department of Economics, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Estados Unidos de América
2University of International Business and Economics, School of Finance, Beijing. China
Year:
Season: May
Volumen: 52
Number: 1
Pages: 79-94
Country: Chile
Language: Inglés
Document type: Artículo
Approach: Analítico
English abstract The S-curve hypothesis postulates that the correlation coefficient between the current exchange rate and past trade balance values may be negative. However, the correlation between the current exchange rate and future values of the trade balance may be positive. Previous research using aggregate trade flows between Brazil and rest of the world find weak support for the curve. When we disaggregate Brazil's trade flows with the U.S. and investigate 95 industries that trade between the two countries, we find support for the S-curve in 51 industries. Small and large industries and durable and non-durable commodities are found to benefit from currency devaluation
Disciplines: Economía
Keyword: Economía industrial,
Comercio internacional,
Teorías económicas,
Tipo de cambio,
Curva S,
Brasil,
Estados Unidos de América,
Commodities
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