| Journal: | Investigaciones geográficas - Instituto de Geografía. UNAM |
| Database: | PERIÓDICA |
| System number: | 000396869 |
| ISSN: | 0188-4611 |
| Authors: | Osorio, Laura Paulina1 Mas, Jean-Francois1 Guerra, Francisco1 Maass, Manuel2 |
| Institutions: | 1Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Morelia, Michoacán. México 2Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, Morelia, Michoacán. México |
| Year: | 2015 |
| Season: | Dic |
| Number: | 88 |
| Pages: | 60-74 |
| Country: | México |
| Language: | Español |
| Document type: | Artículo |
| Approach: | Analítico, prospectivo |
| Spanish abstract | El estudio analizó los cambios de cubierta y uso del suelo en la cuenca del río Coyuquilla, en Guerrero, México durante los periodos 1986-2000 y 2000-2011. Se elaboraron mapas de cubiertas y usos del suelo con base en la interpretación de imágenes de satélite. Durante el periodo 1986-2000 se observó una pérdida del 16% de la cubierta vegetal que afectó principalmente el bosque tropical seco con una tasa anual de deforestación de -3.7%. De 2000-2011 se observó una pérdida del 22% de cubierta vegetal y fue el bosque de encino, la cubierta que presentó la tasa más alta de deforestación (-5.54%). El incremento de los pastizales inducidos fue la principal causa de la pérdida de las cubiertas forestales. La altitud, la distancia a carreteras, la distancia a localidades y la pendiente del terreno fueron indicadores importantes para explicar la deforestación en los tres tipos de bosque y los dos periodos analizados. La evaluación de los modelos probabilísticos a través del análisis ROC muestra que los resultados se encuentran muy por arriba de un modelo aleatorio y fueron capaces de identiicar las áreas más propensas a los CCUS del siguiente periodo (2000-2011) para las ocho transiciones analizadas |
| English abstract | We analyzed land use / land cover changes (LUCC) in the basin of the river Coyuquilla in the state of Guerrero, Mexico during the periods 1986-2000 and 2000-2011. Land use / land cover maps for 1986, 2000 and 2011 were elaborated using Landsat and SPOT images and previous cartography from the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) and the National Forest Inventory. he analysis of the satellite images was carried out through the method of interdependent interpretation of multidate satellite data in order to assure the consistency of the classification. Maps' accuracy was assessed through the interpretation of a stratiied random sample of veriication sites. Census information from INEGI, which includes demographic and socioeconomic data, along with environmental data were gathered and integrated in a GIS database. he method of the weights of evidence was applied in order to identify the LUCC drivers and elaborate maps of change probability. hese maps were evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Overall map accuracy was 71%, 73% and 75% for 1986, 2000 and 2011 respectively. During the period 1986-2000, a loss of 16% of the forest cover that mainly afected the dry tropical forest with an annual deforestation rate of -3.7% was observed. During the period 2000-2011, a loss of 22% of forest cover was observed and oak forest was the cover with the highest deforestation rate (-5.54%). hese results are consistent with previous studies in the region. he increase of induced pasture was the main cause of the loss of forest cover. he elevation, distance to roads, distance to human settlements and the slope were important factors to explain deforestation in the three forest types and the two periods analyzed. he assessment of probabilistic models through the computing of the area under the ROC curve index gives index values between 0.61 and 0.92.. |
| Disciplines: | Geografía, Agrociencias |
| Keyword: | Geografía física, Silvicultura, Deforestación, Prospectiva, Vegetación, Uso del suelo, Guerrero, México |
| Keyword: | Geography, Agricultural sciences, Physical geography, Silviculture, Deforestation, Prospective, Vegetation, Land use, Guerrero, Mexico |
| Full text: | Texto completo (Ver PDF) |
